000 AXNT20 KNHC 181115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N15W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 01N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-08N EAST OF 23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W SW TO 25N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N94W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 KT DOMINATE...NORTHERLIES OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. ALSO TONIGHT...A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW BASIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO WEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W SW TO 14N81W TO 10N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 100 NM EAST OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT SPREADS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TRADEWINDS FROM TO 15-20 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TAIL OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ...HISPANIOLA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW ALSO DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER HAITI THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 77W. THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SECONDARY FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC. OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N10W TO 26N16W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 14N-27N BETWEEN 33W-48W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL AGAIN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE SW N ATLC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR