000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 02N25W TO 01N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N EAST OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR 31N97W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM WESTERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W SW TO 26N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RANGES FROM 20-25 KT...MOSTLY NORTHERLIES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N...LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CIRCLES AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS WILL DRIFT TO SE LOUISIANA LATER THIS MORNING THUS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN BASIN. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO WEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W SW TO 15N81W TO 11N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 230 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 50 NM EAST OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WHICH ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15- 25 KT SPREADS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE TRADEWINDS OF 25 KT ABOUNDS...LIGHTER TRADES FROM TO 15-20 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER EASTERN CUBA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LATER THE SAME DAY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW ALSO DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 79W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 34N54W TO 25N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AREA COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 34W-47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR