000 AXNT20 KNHC 172356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N13W AND 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W TO 1N30W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 19W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CUTTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI... AND ALABAMA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO 25N95W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND IT CONTINUES FROM 25N95W TO 24N96W AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THROUGH 30N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND ON TOP OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... ICAO STATION KGBK IS REPORTING CLEARING SKIES AFTER SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUD CEILINGS FROM 6000 FEET TO 7000 FEET. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS AT 6500 FEET AND AT 8500 FEET. ICAO STATION KIPN IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 9000 FEET. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE COMPARATIVELY CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 27N90W. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 90W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO 22N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 25N68W 20N74W 15N80W 9N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY FRONT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.31 IN MONTEGO BAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 2N78W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 4N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A BROAD STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ALONG 75W...ALONG 63W/64W AT 24 HOURS...AND THEN BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 25N57W TO 20N60W 15N63W 11N65W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START THE 48- HOUR FORECAST ALONG 67W/68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE...SHIFT TO A LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N65W...TO 11N64W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH 25N67W TO 20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...ACROSS JAMAICA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 17N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N52W 14N52W AND 7N58W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N54W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N51W AND 33N47W. A SECOND TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N54W AND 26N55W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...AND MAURITANIA TO 14N18W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 31N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROUGH FROM 31N53W TO 25N55W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 35W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT