000 AXNT20 KNHC 170606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 04N17W TO 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-05N BETWEEN 09W-25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE GULF AFTER THE FRONTS PASSAGE AND FLOWS AROUND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. IN TERMS OF WINDS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT SPREADS OVER BASIN WITH LIGHTER WINDS CIRCLING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. BY SATURDAY MORNING THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH ITS TAIL ACROSS EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND SUPPORT A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE PRIMARY OR LEADING FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO WESTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W TO COSTA RICA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 11N81W. A SECONDARY FRONT OR REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO 17N81W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT SPREADS WEST OF 81W OR WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. EXCEPT WITHIN 200 NM FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE TRADEWINDS OF 25 KT ABOUNDS...LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MERGE THEN STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. BY SATURDAY MORNING THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA HAS INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME REGION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND SUPPORT A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE PRIMARY OR LEADING FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N68W TO 23N71W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SECONDARY FRONT OR REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 24N73W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND THEN ALSO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N49W TO 25N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 50W-54W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-24N BETWEEN 38W-54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR