000 AXNT20 KNHC 170001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 16/2100 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N79W. STRONG N- NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 02N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N23W TO 00N30W TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 08W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 16/2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. RESIDUAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. PRESENTLY COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...WHILE TEXAS AND THE W GULF HAVE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE TIP OF S TEXAS AT 26N97W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N75W TO 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 11N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THIS FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W TO HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SOUTH GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TRADEWINDS. THE SURFACE FRONTS ARE W OF THE ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ONE MERGED FRONT TO BE W OF THE ISLAND AND FRONTAL SHOWERS TO REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO E CUBA AT 20N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FRONT. A GALE IS ALSO N OF 27N W OF THIS FRONT UNTIL 17/0000 UTC. A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 23N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W- 55W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N51W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW TO 32N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA