000 AXNT20 KNHC 161750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 32N76W S-SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. STRONG N-NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27N THE ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 06W-14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITED THE REGION IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. ONLY A PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE AREAL SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ON A TRIUMVIRATE OF HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW ALABAMA...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 26N94W...AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY E OF 74W AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO BEYOND 25N67W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME REMAINS IN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE EASTERNMOST ONE ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF NE NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE NW...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. THIS FRONT EXHIBITS FAR LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MERGE THEN STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...A FEW ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO OFFSHORE OF NE NICARAGUA TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA IS GOING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ENERGETIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N78W OVER NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 26N78W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W S-SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N66W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA WEST OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. THE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BY THURSDAY AND BEGIN A GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N40W. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1017 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N50W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 30N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 42W-55W WITHIN THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. 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