000 AXNT20 KNHC 161147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY JAN 16/1200 UTC ON THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 28N WEST OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND NEAR 31N77W TO 23N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W SW TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO 0N30W TO 02N40W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N-04N BETWEEN 07W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-08N BETWEEN 31W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 25N81W...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE IN THE SE GULF EAST OF A LINE FROM 26N81W TO 21N86W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE WEST OF THAT LONGITUDE. EXCEPT FOR THE REGION IN THE SE GULF ABOVE-MENTIONED...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS TWO COLD FRONTS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W SW TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 80W. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT SPREADS WEST OF 80W. EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE...LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA WHILE THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL CUBA SW TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER CUBA WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER HAITI. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE ISLAND THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HAITI WHICH MAY BE TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT DRIFTS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN TO HAITI WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NE CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N79W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS IS WEST OF 70W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N45W FROM WHICH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N41W TO 25N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 41W-45W. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR