000 AXNT20 KNHC 160605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY JAN 16/1200 UTC ON THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N NW OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND NEAR 31N77W TO 23N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO 0S24W TO 02S43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-07N BETWEEN 28W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W SW TO 29N83W TO 24N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EAST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N80W SW TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN WEST OF A LINE FROM 19N77W TO 15N82W. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT SPREADS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN. LIGHTER TRADEWINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE BY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE ISLAND THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WHICH MAY BE TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH COULD EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N74W SW TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF 74W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N43W FROM WHICH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N42W TO 28N37W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N38W. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N41W TO 22N38W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC LATER THIS MORNING GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR