000 AXNT20 KNHC 160012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. STRONG N-NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT 16/1200 UTC WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 00N22W TO 00N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 05W-20W...AND FROM 2S-6N BETWEEN 31W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE W GULF PRODUCING 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W SUPPORTING THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO TO N GUATEMALA AT 17N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA AT TO NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AREINFORCING FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE W DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON 16/1200 UTC. SEE ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED COLD-CORE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N43W WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 37W-42W. 30 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR TWO COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE E ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE W TO 25N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA