000 AXNT20 KNHC 150605 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE SW NORTH ATLC BY JAN 16/1200 UTC. W TO NW GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION N OF 27N WEST OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N78W TO 23N80W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 01N33W TO 02N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 07W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-09N BETWEEN 18W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0300 UTC FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W. EAST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER WEST OF A LINE FROM 28N82W SW TO 20N94W. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS EAST OF 90W WHILE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE SPREADS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N. LIGHTER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LEAVING SOME REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NW GULF IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALSO THIS MORNING WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WITH TRAILING WINDS OF 20- 25 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND N OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-83W. OVER THE NW BASIN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTS OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND HONDURAS IS GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF 84W WHILE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN. LIGHTER TRADEWINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY THU MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW BASIN THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5-10 KT CONTRIBUTE TO THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0300 UTC FROM 30N75W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 24N WEST OF 71W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N40W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1010 MB LOWS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 27N40W AND OTHER NEAR 27N38W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW CENTER ALONG 29N37W TO 27N35W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N36W TO 11N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW CENTER ALONG 23N37W TO 21N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N- 31N BETWEEN 34W-41W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WED MORNING GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR