000 AXNT20 KNHC 141753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 06N16W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30N TO 03N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 02N45W TO 06N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 07W-13W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 19W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 30W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE BASIN VIA THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W S-SW TO 26N87W THEN SW TO 22N91W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 75 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO THAT WILL SLIDE EAST PROVIDING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT INTO THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING IN THE NW GULF AND SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER EACH ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W CONTINUES TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-78W...INCLUDING 20 TO 25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS S OF 12N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 75W-88W ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE GRENADINES. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...A FEW ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER LIMITED...STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO BEYOND 32N66W. ASIDE FROM A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N75W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 40N53W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW TO 20N70W. FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A DOMINANT 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N41W AND A SECONDARY 1010 MB LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTH NEAR 24N41W. THE DOMINANT LOW IS OCCLUDED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N43W TO 30N38W TO 26N35W WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 14N42W. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 27W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN