000 AXNT20 KNHC 141114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W SW TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 05N30W TO 05N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 14W-33W AS WELL AS FROM 03N-05N EAST OF 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-06N WEST OF 33W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 24N90W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. EAST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 27N82W SW TO 22N88W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT IS N OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 94W WHILE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPREADS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N AND EAST OF THE FRONT. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND UP TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE BASIN BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER LEAVING SOME REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NE MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND PREVAIL IN THE BASIN THROUGHOUT WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W-86W AS WELL AS S OF 13N E OF 70W. IN TERMS OF WIND...TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 80W. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION SINCE TUE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW HONDURAS BY WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ISLAND...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS CROSSING THE ISLAND WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORTIONS OF HAITI. BESIDES AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 78W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE N OF 24N WEST OF 71W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 40W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N51W SW TO 24N61W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 23N42W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS TO THE N OF THE LOW EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 25N37W FROM WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E-NE TO 25N29W. ALSO FROM THE TRIPLE POINT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 19N38W TO 16N44W TO 15N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 30W-42W. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 18W-29W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GENERATING MORE SHOWERS IN THE ZONE. BY WED NIGHT...THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS