000
AXNT20 KNHC 140606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW IS NEAR 24N42W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE 
OF 1008 MB. N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 
44W AND 47W AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14/0600 UTC. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW 
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 31W-42W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
11N16W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 05N31W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-07N 
BETWEEN 17W-30W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-
01N BETWEEN 30W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                             
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
WISCONSIN SW TO A BASE OVER SE TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W SW TO 22N92W 
TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. EAST OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS 
THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES 
DIFFLUENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. 
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 
RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 23N WHILE 
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OVER THE 
EASTERN BASIN E OF THE FRONT. BY TUE NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE BASIN LEAVING SOME REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE 
STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF 70W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI 
TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE 
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS S OF 13N E OF 70W. IN TERMS OF 
WIND...TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 80W. A 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN BY TUE 
NIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION 
SINCE TUE AFTERNOON.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                               
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS CROSSING THE 
EASTERN ISLAND WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD 
WITH THE TRADEWINDS...THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO HAITI. 
BESIDES AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 
22N W OF 74W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A BASE NEAR 20N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED 
FROM 30N52W SW TO 26N62W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT A LOW REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE 
AS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N42W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 26N38W FROM WHERE A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 25N31W. FROM THE TRIPLE POINT...A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 19N38W TO 13N41W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE 
FOR WIND AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR