000 AXNT20 KNHC 140007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW IS NEAR 24N42W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14/0600 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 34W-43W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 03N33W TO THE COAST OF SOTH AMERICA NEAR 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-06N BETWEEN 19W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUSIANA AT 29N91W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTS CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LAND AND SEA CONTRAST IS OVER THE NE GULF COAST E OF FRONT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE NOTED IN THIS WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF W OF FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA ...AND W PANAMA...FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULAAND NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N67W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N55W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. A COLD CORE GALE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N39W TO 16N40W TO 12N44W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 27N38W TO 28N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 34W-43W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N42W IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-32W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA