000
AXNT20 KNHC 131748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 23N42W 
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1010 MB HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 
35N28W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 12-18 
HOURS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND 
THE CENTER FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 23N TO 
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 
04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N19W TO 03N26W TO 03N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 21W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                             
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 100W-105W MOVING ACROSS TEXAS 
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO LAREDO 
TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH 
TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COVER MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 
24N BETWEEN 85W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF 
LATER TODAY...REACH FROM APALACHICOLA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
EARLY TUE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES S OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. A 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS WED...THEN DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA THU. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY 
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED 
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADE 
WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 19N W OF 78W. 
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN 70W-82W 
THROUGH TUE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS 
OF THE ISLAND TODAY IN A FAIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION CENTERED 
NEAR 20N73W. EXPECT GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST 
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
A WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 54W SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N57W 
TO 28N67W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS 
NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 33N IS ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N70W. ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W. A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE GALE-FORCE LOW NEAR 23N42W TO 26N40W TO 
27N35W...THEN CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 29N17W. BROAD-SCALE 
DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 42W IS PRODUCING 
EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER A 
LARGE AREA FROM 15N TO 26N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 23W-35W. A COLD FRONT 
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA TUE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 
31N76W TO WESTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT... FROM 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA 
WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE BAHAMAS THU AND 
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL