000 AXNT20 KNHC 131205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 22N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N42W TO 13N46W AND 10N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N15W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 31N15W TO 29N20W AND 28N25W. THE FRONT BECOMES WARM FROM 28N25W TO 25N35W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N43W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 19N41W TO 16N48W. EXPECT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALE- FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 16 FEET FROM 26N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 30N20W 25N33W 15N40W 10N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME 30N20W 9N59W LINE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N13W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 4N13W AND IT CONTINUES TO 3N18W 3N23W 3N35W...TOWARD THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W. DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 100W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A...WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 24N90W 27N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 96W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS...INCLUDING THE AREA OF THE OIL RIGS/ PLATFORMS... TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 25N90W TO 19N95W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DISORGANIZED NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 3N80W...BEYOND 5N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CENTRAL AMERICA-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THIS AREA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N70W AND 25N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 23N88W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 28N61W 24N68W 22N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.29 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...AT 13/0000 UTC. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N23W TO 15N25W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N55W 19N60W... ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N62W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF A LINE FROM 31N43W TO 24N48W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER AREA N OF 17N E OF A LINE FROM 31N46W TO 18N50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF IMPORTANCE CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 25N73W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 23N80W. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 29N WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSIST OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT