000 AXNT20 KNHC 122341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N38W LOCATED SOUTH OF AN EASTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND IS RESULTING IN N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW... NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BEYOND 25N35W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO 02N23W TO 03N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 09W-27W...AND FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 33W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RELATIVELY SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 67W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 23N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 94W WHERE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF AND IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MEXICO...EASTERN TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS. THIS CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION PRECEDES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ENERGY CENTERED NEAR 26N104W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY MID-DAY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG TRADES OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT DUE TO UPPER TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED BY A MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT REMAINS TO BE STRONG TRADES DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT GENERALLY BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY STRETCHING EASTWARD GRADUALLY BY LATE MONDAY DUE TO ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS...SLIDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BENEATH AN OTHERWISE FAIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 66W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT WEDGING BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. ONE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE OTHER RIDGE STEMS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N39W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N50W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF 25N44W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N38W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 20N41W THEN WEST TO 19N47W. A WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N35W TO 29N25W AND CONNECTS UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SW TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 29N25W. WITH SEVERAL FRONTS AND PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 22W-45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN