000 AXNT20 KNHC 121805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FEET ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION A FEW MORE DAYS...BUT GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST A FEW MORE MORE HOURS TODAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AROUND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N40W WITHIN AN AREA FROM 25N TO 29N EAST OF 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N10W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 3N37W TO 1N51W. RANDOMLY ORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG...IS SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N92W...WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AT 29N89W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 83W-87W. RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 92W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED TODAY...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 19N76W DOMINATES THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS PRESENT S OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-80W. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED NEAR 18N85W...THE BASIN LACKS AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 76W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N-7N IN COLOMBIA W OF 75W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON. THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W WILL EXPERIENCE FRESH TRADE WINDS WHILE THE REMAINING AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W WINDS WILL HAVE MODERATE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BUT DISSIPATE N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED...AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BY THU. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN PHASE WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE REGION N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N52W 10N54W 6N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N44W...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL