000 AXNT20 KNHC 121205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER THEY DEVELOP. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 14 FEET...ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FROM 25N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 42W. THIS IS FORECAST TO HAPPEN AROUND A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 21N39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W 5N18W...TO 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W 3N30W AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 8N13W 4N18W 7N26W 5N33W 7N45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST... SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 32N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 29N83W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...TO 23N82W AND 22N88W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...THROUGH 32N55W 29N64W 26N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT... THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...PALACIOS...AND IN ROCKPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 76W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N/7N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND POSSIBLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE AREA THAT IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND FOG ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE REPORTING STATIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND THEN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD MORE AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 18N46W ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN A LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 20N46W TO 11N50W AND 9N54W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N19W 25N35W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N35W TO 22N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N18W 26N30W 21N44W 23N50W 24N53W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE 18N46W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 32N42W 20N48W CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N52W 10N54W 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N19W 25N35W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...THROUGH 32N55W 29N64W 26N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N35W TO 23N44W TO 22N50W. WITHIN 75 NM N OF FRONT E OF 43W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF 54W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 51W AND 73W FROM 10N TO A LINE FROM 24N73W TO 20N51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. S OF 11N E OF 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. N OF 28N W OF 73W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 TO 25 KT W OF FRONT N OF 30N. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 12 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN FRONT AND 73W. N OF 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT