000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET...WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH RESPECT TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N40W...ARE FORECAST AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 2N20W 3N33W AND 2N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N8W 6N11W 6N22W 8N30W 12N36W 11N40W 8N54W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO WEST TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND...FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO 28N100W IN TEXAS...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN LAREDO AND EAGLE PASS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N61W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PART OF THE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...KCRH...KVBS...KEIR...KSPR... KMDJ...KATP...KMYT...AND AT KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVBS...KEHC...KVBS...KEIR... KSPR...KATP...K9F2. ICAO STATION KAXO HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THUNDER...COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERRY...AND AT THE ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TO PUNTA GORDA...AND TO NAPLES. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 22N84W 18N85W 16N84W AT 10/1200 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED AND BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 83W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 67W. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 17N48W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 79W IN BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND POSSIBLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINIGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HAITI. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FOR THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N51W 10N54W 6N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPOORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N34W TO 25N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 24N40W 23N60W BEYOND 32N74W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N61W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE 06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT