000 AXNT20 KNHC 101056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL 10-M WINDS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N- 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 30-35 KT IN THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 25-30 KT. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N19W TO 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND IN AN AREA FROM THE EQUATOR-3N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N84W TO 24N87W. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WAS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD BY AN 80-100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PROGRESO MEXICO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SE TO BELIZE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER ACTIVITY WAS OVER BELIZE AND HONDURAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING 15-20....LOCALLY 25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER GUATEMALA...W HONDURAS... PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND SHOWERS. DEEP LAYERED DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE REGION BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT WARM TOPPED SHOWERS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N57W WHERE IT BECOMES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 29N65W TO NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 N OF THE FRONT W OF 65W WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM TO THE N OF THE FRONT. WSR-88D DATA AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM IN PALM BEACH COUNTY FLORIDA OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. THIS STORM HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY BEACH AND HYPOLUXO. SEVERE URBAN FLOODING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE CLOSURE OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BOYNTON BEACH. THE 1028 MB HIGH EARLIER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W HAS WEAKENED TO A RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER....WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 14N49W. A 100 KT JETSTREAM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 10W-35W. THE W ATLANTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AS WELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB