000 AXNT20 KNHC 100601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SHIP OBSERVATION AND NWP 10-M WINDS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 30-35 KT IN THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N14W TO 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W...AND IN AN AREA FROM 4N- 7N BETWEEN 34W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N84W TO 24N88W. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WAS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD BY AN 80-100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NEAR CANCUN AND EXTENDING SSE TO BELIZE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING 15-20....LOCALLY 25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER GUATEMALA...W HONDURAS... PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND SHOWERS. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N65W WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NW OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM TO THE N OF THE FRONT. WSR-88D DATA AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM IN PALM BEACH COUNTY FLORIDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS STORM HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 17 INCHES IN BOYNTON BEACH. SEVERE URBAN FLOODING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE CLOSURE OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BOYNTON BEACH. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER....WHILE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITH 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE LOCATED AT 29N14W AND 14N48W. A 90 KT JETSTREAM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 10W-35W. THE W ATLANTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AS WELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB