000 AXNT20 KNHC 092350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9-14 FEET ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECST TO PERSISTFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N14W TO 2N30W TO 0N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 4W- 10W... AND FROM 0N-7N BETWEEN 31W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N80W TO 24N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. RRADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 85W. ELSEWHERE... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GULF. IN ADDITION...THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SE GULF FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE TEXAS FRONT TO REMAIN INLAND. MOREOVER IN 24 HOURS...SURFACE SE RETURN FLOW WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE GULF IN A WARMING TREND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 21N88W TO 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 83W-90W. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER GUATEMALA...W HONDURAS... PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 17N. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND SHOWERS. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N62W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W. A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE LOW CENTER....WHILE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITH 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE LOCATED AT 29N14W AND 14N48W. A 90 KT JETSTREAM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 10W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT AND TO CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE NE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA