000 AXNT20 KNHC 091128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT 0600 UTC SATURDAY. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO 0S30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-07N WEST OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ALOFT AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N85W TO COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W ENHANCES THE CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN BASIN WITH E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT AND E-SE WINDS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO THE WESTERN GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO ENTER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 24N85W TO OFFSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-21N WEST OF 83W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN TERMS OF WIND...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE OUT OF THE GALE ZONE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 75W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...HOWEVER REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOSTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N60W TO 28N67W TO 26N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WEAKNESS IN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N80W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N62W SW TO 22N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N46W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 31N15W SW TO 24N17W TO 21N22W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 21N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 14W-20W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 14W-17W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC SW TO A BASE OVER NE VENEZUELA IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 17N27W TO 12N42W AND A LINE FROM 14N16W TO 09N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS