000 AXNT20 KNHC 090602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A PERIOD OF 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 03N32W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N47W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN ATLC SW TO A BASE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 10N42W TO 05N53W AND A LINE FROM 11N16W TO 03N23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ALOFT AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO GREAT PORTIONS OF IT TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 37N75W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF N OF 23N WHERE ASCAT DATA INDICATE WINDS UP TO 25 KT...OBSERVATIONS OVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN GULF SHOW WINDS OF 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE INTO THE NW ATLC. WITHIN THIS PERIOD...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW GULF ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 19N85W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N WEST OF 82W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 81W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN TERMS OF WIND...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE OUT OF THE GALE ZONE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 75W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY...HOWEVER REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N61W TO 26N71W TO NORTH- CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N43W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N16W TO 22N23W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 20N31W TO 20N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 14W-18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR