000 AXNT20 KNHC 081100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 02N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 03N33W TO 01N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S48W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN ATLC SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN A LINE FROM 22N20W TO 12N31W TO 04N51W AND A LINE FROM 11N16W TO 02N20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS FROM 0N-04N EAST OF 12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF ALOFT AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N EAST OF 88W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND A 1033 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE DOMINATES. OTHERWISE...RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ON THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NE INLAND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-SE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRIDAY NIGHT ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO 18N83W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 16N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. IN TERMS OF WIND...N-NE WIND FLOW OF 25 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEST OF THE FRONT WHILE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH REMNANT RAINSHOWERS LASTING UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. A DRY AIRMASS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN ISLAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MOSTLY WITH FAIR WEATHER TODAY. ON THURSDAY MORNING ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N61W SW TO 28N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N74W TO NORTH- CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N21W TO 27N26W TO 27N34W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ALONG 30N18W TO 21N35W TO 17N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR