000 AXNT20 KNHC 080606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W TO 04N17W TO 02N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 04N35W TO 01N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN A LINE FROM 21N22W TO 06N37W AND A LINE FROM 12N16W TO 05N28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-43W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF ALOFT AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N EAST OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND A 1034 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KT EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE LIGHTER E-SE WIND FLOW DOMINATES. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-SE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 17N83W TO NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS SOUTH OF 21N WEST OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF WIND...N-NE WIND FLOW OF 25 KT DOMINATES WEST OF THE FRONT WHILE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION WITHIN THIS PERIOD. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. A DRY AIRMASS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN ISLAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MOSTLY WITH FAIR WEATHER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 25N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LINE FROM 30N72W TO 27N80W. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N43W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N24W TO 28N29W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ALONG 30N19W TO 21N36W TO 18N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR