000 AXNT20 KNHC 072354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 5N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N23W TO 5N33W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 25W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PERSIST WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI AT 32N90W MAINTAINING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENDT OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF S OF 25N TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH A 90- 110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LESSENING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SE GULF TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W TO HONDURAS AT 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST N OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...W HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. 20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N42W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N20W TO 26N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES WSW FROM 26N27W TO 21N40W TO 21N50W. STRONGER NW WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CENTERED OVER THE AZORES AT 38N26W...AT 20N40W...AND E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N56W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 20N40W PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 10W-30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE...HOWEVER THE SHEAR LINE WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE 48 HOUR POINT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA