000 AXNT20 KNHC 071145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 07/0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N70W SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W TO NW HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 76W. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 94W. FINALLY...N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 84W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N22W TO 05N27W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N27W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC SW TO A BASE OVER VENEZUELA IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SE OF A LINE FROM 20N20W TO 07N36W NORTH OF 05N. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 08W-23W AND FROM 04S-05N W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW WIND FLOW BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ONE CENTER OVER SW TENNESSEE AND OTHER OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE N TO NE WINDS OF GALE FORCE S OF 25N E OF 94W. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC WHILE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N80W SW TO NW HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS WEST OF IT...INCLUDING INLAND HONDURAS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 17N W OF 84W. GALE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 1800 UTC TODAY. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N62W AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SW BASIN GENERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-83W. EVEN THAT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER REGION...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE JUST E OF THE ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WILL BE PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF IT WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 76W. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N46W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N21W TO 25N29W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 22N36W TO 22N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE N OF 23N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR