000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27.5N80W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE N OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT. AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27.5N80W TO NAPLES FLORIDA AT 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMECHE NEAR 18N93W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON 07/0000 UTC W OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON 07/0600 UTC NW OF LINE FROM 22N84.5W TO 18.5N88W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N26W TO E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 4N36W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM 4N42W SW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N37W TO 1N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7N BETWEEN 20W- 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 26N. THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF FRONT HAS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. A 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N TEXAS AT 33N98W MOVING SE MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENDT OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF S OF 27N TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF A COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA... YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE... HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. EXPECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N46W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N26W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 55W-75W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N32W TO 16N53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA