000 AXNT20 KNHC 061800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 06/1200 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM TAMPA BAY TO BAY OF CAMECHE NEAR 19N95W. NW TO N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. FINALLY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT W TO NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 4N9W TO 4N21W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N22W TO E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 4N35W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM 3N40W SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N35W TO 1N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1200 UTC EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC BY THE WIND FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE TONIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE FORCE WINDS SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 13N79W. THE TROUGHING AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT THAT IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AT THE SURFACE. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N87W ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RAINSHOWERS ON THE CAYMAN TRENCH...JAMAICA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN AROUND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PERSIST GENERALLY E OF 80W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT GENERATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND. OTHERWISE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANQUIL AS THE AIR VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 55W-75W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N32W TO 16N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-35W . AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS