000 AXNT20 KNHC 061138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 06/0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N85W SW TO 24N91W TO SE MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. NW TO N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST NORTH OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT W TO NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 04N15W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 05N32W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N40W SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N33W TO 03N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N EAST OF 35W AND FROM 02S-08N BETWEEN 18W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N85W SW TO 24N91W TO SE MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC BY THE WIND FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE FRONT WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN TONIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE FORCE WINDS SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROUGHING AND REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT THAT IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AT THE SURFACE. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W AND ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS ON THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS N OF 17N WEST OF 85W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS ON THE CAYMAN TRENCH...JAMAICA...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PERSIST GENERALLY E OF 78W. FINALLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT GENERATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 35N52W COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL BASIN. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N27W TO 26N38W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TO 26N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 23W-37W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR