000 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 06/0300 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N97W. N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION MID-DAY MONDAY...NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE BY 06/1800 UTC NORTH OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ON 07/0000 UTC...N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 85W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N32W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N36W SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N32W TO 03N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF TONIGHT BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W. THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 21N97W TO 19N96W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. THE TROUGHING AND REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT THAT IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ASSOCIATED TO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PERSIST GENERALLY E OF 78W. FINALLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY GENERATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND. OTHERWISE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 35N54W COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL BASIN. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N30W TO 27N39W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 30W-38W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR