000 AXNT20 KNHC 051146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SE GULF S OF 25N WITHIN 75 NM E OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N83W TO YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF MON MORNING AND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS SECOND GALE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N WITHIN 75 NM E OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N86W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC MON AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC FROM 08N13W TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N20W AND CONTINUES TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 02N30W...THEN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S-07N BETWEEN 24W-33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N- 10N EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 27N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NORTH OF HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOWING AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO ADVECTS MOIST AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N WEST OF 90W. LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPS THE REMAINDER BASIN FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS OFFSHORE THE WESTERN FLORIDA COASTLINE AS WELL AS INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N WEST OF 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 20N WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MON AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW BASIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT LEAVING RESIDUAL CONVECTION THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN MON NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STABLE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N37W TO 27N46W TO 27N52W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N61W TO 28N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 22N WEST OF 73W BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH WAS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS NEAR 28N29W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR