000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF MON MORNING THROUGHOUT MON NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC FROM 07N12W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-07N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT IN THE SE GULF WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO 25N85W TO 22N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 28N EAST OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPS THE REMAINDER BASIN FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER REMNANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT MON NIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE NW BASIN SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N86W TO A 1013 MB NEAR 17N86W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N WEST OF 80W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON. THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUN MORNING BUT RESIDUAL CONVECTION CAN EXTEND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN MON NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STABLE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N41W TO 27N52W TO 27N60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N70W TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N WEST OF 70W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 43W-50W. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE REMAINDER PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR