000 AXNT20 KNHC 042354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF S OF 24N W OF 95W MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 17W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO 24N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA...THE E GULF ...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 80W- 88W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SE GULF TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON MON MORNING OVER THE W GULF S OF 24N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 81W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 27N64W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 25N80W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 28N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N20W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THIS LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 25W-34W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 30N38W TO 28N55W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA