000 AXNT20 KNHC 041749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 95W MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 8N13W TO 8N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING ALONG 94W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A REMNANT NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AT 04/1500 UTC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA THEN CURVES S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC COAST ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER DELAWARE AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF SUN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY SUN NIGHT AND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY MON THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY MON EVENING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AT 04/1500 UTC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA THEN CURVES S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W AND CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THIS FRONT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM THE PENINSULA OF ZAPATA IN CUBA ALONG 19N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NE OF 14N W OF 72W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 80W. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND WILL DIMINISH SOME ON TUE AND WED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 30N33W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W AND CONTINUES W ALONG 28N61W TO 25N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA W OF 80W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 77W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT IS COVERED BY MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER DELAWARE. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING S OF THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 14N49W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 9N50W TO 16N43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON MON THEN EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW