000 AXNT20 KNHC 041128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF AT 0600 UTC MON JAN 06 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W AND THEN INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC TO 06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO 03N23W TO 02N35W THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 02N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-07N BETWEEN 13W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE U.S.A EASTERN COAST ANCHORED BY MULTIPLE CENTERS PROVIDES THE SW GULF WITH NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT AND E-SE WIND FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE TO THE REMAINDER BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 29N EAST OF 88W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY COLD AIR N OF 26 N WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE HIGHER 50'S TO THE LOWER 60'S. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION. EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY BRINGING RAINSHOWERS TO THE SE GULF. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER BASIN THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 0900 UTC IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N80W SW TO 20N85W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N WEST OF 81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING INLAND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN...WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE SE GULF. TRAILING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NW BASIN THROUGHOUT LATE SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE UPPER LEVELS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS CROSSING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 0900 UTC IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N58W TO 27N64W TO 25N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIES ALONG 25N68W TO 21N74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N WEST OF 74W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 19N WHERE FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON THE ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG 08N39W TO 04N38W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 45W-51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR