000
AXNT20 KNHC 040606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SAT JAN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND THEN INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC 
TO 06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N14W TO 03N21W TO 0N31W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 0S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-06N 
BETWEEN 14W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A 1033 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF 
BASIN WITH NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT EXCEPT FOR THE NW 
GULF WHERE LIGHTER E-SE FLOW DOMINATES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS ALONG THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO 
IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-29N EAST OF 
90W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY COLD AIR N OF 25 N WHERE 
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO THE HIGHER 50'S. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 
KT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS 
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY ENHANCE 
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN-CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 21N80W SW TO 20N84W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT 
AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N 
OF 18N WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. BOTH WATER VAPOR AND 
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH IS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 
TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PORTION OF THE 
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
CURRENTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS MAINTAIN FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT 
SUNDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N61W SW TO 25N69W 
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N29W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. 
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-13N 
BETWEEN 26W-39W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR