000 AXNT20 KNHC 032347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NOW SPANS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. 10-25 NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 82W-92W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT SW 250 MB WINDS TRAVERSE THE GULF WITH STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER N FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA...MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N76W TO W CUBA AT 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E AND EXTEND FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N75W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA