000 AXNT20 KNHC 031741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF TO 23N85W ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N92W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 80W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...AND S OF 21N W OF 92W IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N25W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 07W- 20N...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W SW TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. STRONG NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION- FREE...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. THE DIMINISHING TREND OF NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE ARKANSAS SWIFTLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLC COAST. AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS...LIGHT S-SE FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NW GULF AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF WATERS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 74W. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W- 79W. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-88W. TWO OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 16N. THE LARGEST OVERALL SYNOPTIC CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ENTRY OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG 20N/21N OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 40N72W TO BASE NEAR 33N77W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N72W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT THE FRONT BRINGS IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREAS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N BETWEEN 28W-42W AND BRIDGES THE SPACE BETWEEN THE 1029 MB HIGH AND A DISSIPATING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN