000 AXNT20 KNHC 030005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 03/0000 UTC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 95W WITH THIS AREA GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BRIEFLY TONIGHT N OF 30W WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W TO 4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N21W TO 3N30W TO 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W- 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 03/0000 UTC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 95W BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 02/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO 25N88W TO MEXICO AT 21N97W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N93W TO 18N94W WITH N WINDS W OF TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA N OF FRONT EXPECT 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. 10-15 KT SW WINDS ARE E OF THE TROUGH. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF STATES AND IN THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA AT 22N80W TO N BELIZE WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SEE ABOVE. PRESENTLY 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N W OF 78W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N28W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA