000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24 HOURS... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS FROM 20N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 28N82W TO 19N88W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF A 31N78W 29N80W COLD FRONT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N12W AND 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 5N38W TO 6N48W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N90W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N/28N ALONG 81W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N75W...TO 27N68W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 27N68W AND IT CONTINUES TO 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N96W 25N96W 23N94W 21N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 27N54W 25N67W 27N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 20N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ICAO STATIONS KATP...KSPR...KDLP...AND KIPN ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. COMPARATIVELY SMALLER AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE IN TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN BOOTHVILLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 5 MILES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PERRY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO NAPLES. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N94W TO 21N91W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY... SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO 21N46W...TO A 16N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W... JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N10W AT THE COAST OF MOROCCO...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N26W...TO 28N33W AND 26N50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N45W TO 20N65W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N79W TO 30N82W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 480 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT