000 AXNT20 KNHC 020003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT EARLY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 04N16W TO 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 04N33W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N EAST OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 32W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 01/2100 UTC...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N90W TO 26N84W TO THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS AMPLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 24N88W TO 23N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF NEAR 28N96W TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N92W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG CENTRAL U.S.A SW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N WEST OF 92W. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS JAMAICA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WHILE LIGHTER WINDS SPREAD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N52W SW TO 26N61W TO 26N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N75W TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS NEAR 65 NM OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE N OF 26N WEST OF 51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N27W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THURSDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR