000 AXNT20 KNHC 011741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 03/0000 UTC FROM 20N-25N W OF 95W WITH THIS AREA GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N14W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 03N26W TO 04N36W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 33W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEAR 37N103W S-SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N112W. THE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A NARROW SWATH OF CONCENTRATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N100W OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TO OVER A MAJORITY OF THE SE CONUS. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA LUZ MEXICO NEAR 24N98W TO SARASOTA FLORIDA NEAR 27N83W. SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO IMPACT THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N93W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND SE AND NW OF THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE LOW IS DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO 23N90W WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT GENERATED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 84W-92W. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY... LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...NOTE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-80W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF CONCENTRATED ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN MOST NOTABLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 57W-65W...THE MONA PASSAGE REGION...AND FROM 14N- 17N BETWEEN 66W-76W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED NORTH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N73W W OF 52W THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING FROM THE SE CONUS AND INTO A DEEP LAYERED LOW FOCUSED ON A 993 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N43W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N55W TO 29N62W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE TO LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT OVERALL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW AND ABSENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N47W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN