000
AXNT20 KNHC 312353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 240 
NM OF A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 20N93W THROUGH EARLY WED. SEE LATEST 
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 3N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 
3.5N BETWEEN 8W-13W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. AT THE 
SURFACE A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 
31/2100 UTC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W 23N83W 
23N91W TO A 1016 MB GALE CENTER IN THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W THEN 
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE ENTIRE GULF 
N AND W OF THE FRONT IS COVERED BY DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. 
RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER N OF LINE 
FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 29N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB 
HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE ON WED REACHING N 
FLORIDA ON THU DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY 
THU WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI 
MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM BELIZE ON 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS COULD DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES. ATLC SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT E ON 
FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
TRADE WINDS COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD INDUCED ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 
BEYOND 32N52W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC AT 
31/2100 UTC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N64W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS 
TO 25N78W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF 
THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL 
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 30N9W 
ALONG 25N33W 20N50W TO E OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N58W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF W ATLC FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N27W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 
32N60W TO NW CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. A 
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EARLY 
THU AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW