000 AXNT20 KNHC 302347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N- 25N W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W 2N42W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES ARE GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 30/2100 UTC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 24N84W WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 24N86W TO 23N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE W GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA JUST E OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ALONG 27N93W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W CONTINUING ALONG 22N95W TO 20N96W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N95W TO 20N92W. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA W OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 25N92W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO. E GULF FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT AND TUE. W GULF FRONT WILL MOVE S AND SE ACROSS THE W HALF OF GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MERGE WITH E GULF STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ALONG FRONT ON WED AND LIFT N WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E- NE ACROSS THE N GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS MERGING WITH N FLOW ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT EASTWARD ON THU. ...HISPANIOLA... TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING. NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. HOWEVER SOME TRADE WIND INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO BEYOND 32N58W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 30/2100 UTC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 23N50W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N40W TO 26N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE TUE THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 32N57W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED AND THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SE UNITED STATES COAST ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW