000 AXNT20 KNHC 301149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ALONG 26N80W 23N90W. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N89W TO 28N94W TO 26N95W TO 21N96.5W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE- FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 25N TO 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 4N26W 4N30W 4N35W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 45W. A CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N1W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 24N85W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 24N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 33N71W 31N74W 28N76W 25N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 22N TO 27N. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 93W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM 19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT IN SANTIAGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA... WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 12N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W...TO 19N84W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD...ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 14N80W 12N73W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.14 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W...MOST PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 17N TO BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N44 W TO 20N50W 16N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N42W AND 26N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MDOERATE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N27W...25N39W AND 23N49W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N46W TO 28N58W 24N68W...TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N36W 27N45W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 42W. EXPECT ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT