000 AXNT20 KNHC 292358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 31/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MONRING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT FROM 22N-24N W OF 95W THEN S OF 21N W OF 94W THROUGH TUE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N22W 5N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES ARE GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT 29/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 25N85W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 25N84W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING ALONG 96W FROM 22N-27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVERNIGHT AND STALL FROM FLORIDA KEYS TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF ON MON MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE SE MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SW FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT EARLY ON MON PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 22N94W TO THE SW GULF BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN N INTO THE W ATLC. THE WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS MERGING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AS IT APPROACHES AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W CUBA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO 18N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ON MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE BECOMING STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING. NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE FAR W ATLC AT 29/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 23N54W TO 12N55W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W 28N45W TO 26N54W WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N41W 27N44W TO 24N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 47W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER SPAIN. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW