000 AXNT20 KNHC 282338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W 4N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 33W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES ARE GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W AT 28/2100 UTC. A NEWLY DEVELOPED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ALONG 26N89W TO 22N92W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THIS LOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 26N87W GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 84W- 88W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W-88W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE LATER THIS EVENING REACHING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUE NE THROUGH SUN WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE E GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN EVENING AND RACE SE PASSING THROUGH THE E GULF ON MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 84W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. THE CARIBBEAN LACKS ANY SURFACE FEATURES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E OFF THE MID ATLC COAST OF UNITED STATES MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON MON. ...HISPANIOLA... TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N73W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N65W WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N55W INTO THE TROPICS TO 12N56W. THIS IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 13N35W TO 24N44W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES. THE WEAK CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST ON SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MON THEN FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW